Press Release

Rail business leaders' confidence in the future of the rail market at a five-year low - Government needs to publish its work pipelines now

1 November 2023

New polling by the Railway Industry Association (RIA), the voice of the UK supply community, shows that over 50% of rail suppliers believe the industry will contract in the next year. These findings represent a significant increase in negative sentiment among businesses across the sector over the last 12 months.

Two hundred railway supplier leaders responded to an independent survey by Savanta over September and October, with the survey finding that:

  • Only 24% think the rail supply industry will grow in the coming year, with 54% saying it will contract – the highest negative rating in the last five years;
  • 48% think their own business will grow, with 28% saying it will contract in the coming year – the lowest cohort predicting growth since the survey was first conducted in 2019, and worse than during the Covid pandemic;
  • 83% think it likely there will be a hiatus in rail work over the next year due, for example, to a delay in GBR-related rail reform, or uncertainty over the completion of major projects; and
  • The three main measures rail businesses will take in response to a hiatus in the coming year are freezing/slowing recruitment (44%, up from 26% in 2022), prioritising work outside the UK (42%), and pausing or slowing plans to expand in the UK (35%); and
  •  Only 13% think the Government will achieve its rail decarbonisation targets of removing all diesel-only trains off the network by 2040 and achieving a fully Net Zero railway by 2050. 87% think it won’t.


Commenting on the survey, Darren Caplan, Chief Executive of the Railway Industry Association, said: “The survey’s conclusions are deeply concerning. They show rail business leaders in the UK anticipating a contraction in the rail market, at a time when Unife, the European trade association, is predicting 3% rail market growth every year around the world.

“The findings show the lowest levels of confidence among senior leaders on the growth outlook for their businesses over the next five years since 2019. Over 80% forecast a hiatus in work in the year ahead, as the Government has still not set out clear steps on rail reform or firm commitments and timescales for delivering major projects. This adversely impacts recruitment, expansion plans and suppliers, who will seek overseas markets where the prospects are considered better.

“With many rail business leaders still reeling from the news that HS2 Phase 2 between Birmingham and Manchester has been cancelled, the findings from this survey support the need for more certainty from the Government on what national, regional and local rail work – both track and train – it wants the railway industry to deliver in the months ahead.

“On the eve of the RIA Annual Conference in London on 1-2 November, we call on the Government to set out a clear roadmap for rail investment, whether involving the new Network North schemes, projects from the Rail Network Enhancements Pipeline which still hasn’t been updated in four years, the Integrated Rail Plan for the North & Midlands, and in the case of rolling stock, a plan for the mix of new and refurbished trains it wants to see in the years ahead. This would provide the certainty rail suppliers need, deliver the rail services customers – both passengers and freight – deserve, and ultimately ensure the value for money taxpayers expect.”

James Rentoul, Senior Director, Savanta, said “These results reflect the tumultuous year the rail sector has had, in light of both numerous rail strikes and the recent news of the scaling-back of HS2. Confidence in the rail supply sector saw a hit last year in 2022, with an increase in the proportion of firms expecting the sector to contract, and confidence has suffered a further dampening this year.

“More than half of rail decision-makers now expect the sector to contract. On top of this, many firms appear to lack confidence in the Government’s plans for the sector, with four fifths of firms thinking a hiatus in rail work over the next year is likely. We expect businesses to have to make difficult decisions in the coming year on employee jobs, pausing or slowing expansion or prioritising work outside of the UK."

Notes to Editors

1. Methodology note: Savanta interviewed 200 railway business leaders in the UK rail supply chain between 18 September and 20 October 2023. Previous research was conduct between 14-28 October 2022, 12-28 October 2021, 17 September and 9 October 2020, and 10 July and 12 August 2019. Savanta is a member of the British Polling Council and abides by its rules. For further information and data on the survey results, please contact James McGowan, RIA Public Affairs & PR Director, at [email protected] and 07932 749 095.
2. About RIA: The Railway Industry Association (RIA) is the voice of the UK rail supply community. We help to grow a sustainable, high-performing, railway supply industry, and to export UK rail expertise and products. RIA has 350+ companies in membership in a sector that contributes £43 billion in economic growth and £14 billion in tax revenue each year, as well as employing 710,000 people. It is also a vital industry for the UK’s economic recovery, supporting green investment and jobs in towns and communities across the UK; for every £1 spent in rail, £2.50 is generated in the wider economy. RIA’s membership is active across the whole of railway supply, covering a diverse range of products and services and including both multi-national companies and SMEs (60% by number). www.riagb.org.uk